Scottish Government publishes Electricity Generation Policy Statement

This week the Scottish Government launched the latest draft of its Electricity Generation Policy Statement which aims to outline how the ambitious 100% renewable energy target for 2020 will be achieved. The document contains a large amount of information including a projected breakdown of Scotland’s future energy mix, outlined aims for the countries energy network in 2020, carbon reduction targets, energy efficiency measures, planned grid connections with other countries, and the expected economic benefits in terms of investment levels and job creation. The complete document can be found here. Scottish Energy Minister, Fergus Ewing stated:

“This report shows that the Scottish Government’s target to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of our electricity needs from renewables, as well as more from other sources, is achievable.

“We know there is doubt and scepticism about our 100 per cent renewables target, and the financial and engineering challenges required to meet it.

“But we will meet these challenges. I want to debate, engage and co-operate with every knowledgeable, interested and concerned party to ensure we achieve our goals.

“We know our target is technically achievable. Scotland already leads the world in renewable energy, and we have the natural resources and the expertise to achieve so much more.

“The prize at stake for the people of Scotland is huge, in terms of jobs, economic opportunities and lower electricity bills for all.”

The Electricity Generation Policy Statement initially outlines what the government hopes to achieve, long term, with the countries energy network.

It states that Scotland’s generation mix should deliver; a secure electricity supply, at an affordable cost to consumers, which can achieve large scale de-carbonisation by 2030, and brings the greatest possible economic benefit to Scotland.

A number of individual targets have been set with these aims in mind. For example, total Scottish energy consumption should be lowered by 12% by 2020. Energy efficiency is internationally regarded as one of the most affordable ways in which energy demand and carbon emissions can be reduced and controlled. Steps are already being taken to meet this target; there was a 7.4% drop in year on year energy demand from 2008 to 2009.

No new nuclear power plants are to be constructed in Scotland although extending the lifespan of the countries two existing nuclear plants for  a further 5 years is being considered. Such a move would serve to ease the transition to a grid more heavily reliant upon renewables.

Carbon Capture and Storage technology is expected to play an important role. Allowing baseload power to be maintained whilst still reducing carbon emissions. A minimum of 2.5 GW of thermal generation fitted with CCS technology is expected to be operational by 2020. CCS technology, if successfully demonstrated at commercial scale, could create up to 5,000 jobs and be worth £3.5 billion to the Scottish economy.

14-16 Gigawatts of renewable capacity will be required to achieve the 100% renewable target by 2020. Currently there are 12 Gigawatts of renewable capacity in various stages of planning, development and deployment. This figure includes 3 Gigawatts of mainly onshore wind projects currently consented or in construction. Whilst it should be remembered that not all of the 12 Gigawatts worth of projects will make it to construction it demonstrates the interest the Scottish renewables sector is already attracting from investors.

To achieve the 2020 target installed renewable generation capacity will have to almost double over the next ten years.Wind (both onshore and offshore) will play a major part in this expansion. 13 Gigawatts of wind energy is expected to be installed by 2020. This will mean that wind power will be providing around 55% of Scotland’s electricity output by this time. The Policy Statement identifies this target as a “major challenge” but argues that it is “consistent” with the projections made in a variety of different reports. Given Scotland’s huge potential for wind energy, strong backing from both the UK and Scottish Goverment’s, and the falling costs of both onshore and offshore wind it seems an achievable, if ambitious, target.

The Scottish Government has outlined a number of economic benefits that a strong and committed drive for increased renewable generation can bring. Firstly, it will serve to insulate consumers from the rising international prices of fossil fuels. The Policy Statement states that from 2013 increased renewable energy capacity will begin to halt the ever increasing cost to consumers from their energy bills.

Secondly, over the next ten years the renewable energy industry alone could be providing up to 40,000 jobs and £30 billion worth of investments into the Scottish economy. This is not including the economic benefits of CCS and increased usage of energy storage technologies. Additionally, the Scottish Government has targeted that 500MW should be owned by local communities by 2020. This level of communal ownership would see up £2.4 billion in Feed in-Tariff revenues over the next 20 years being held by local communities.

Thirdly, the necessary investment in and upgrading of Scotland’s electricity grid would pump £7 billion into the country’s economy and create 1,500 new jobs. The benefits of such investment are already being seen with both ScottishPower and Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) announcing the creation of new training and apprenticeship schemes.

Reactions to the publication of the Electricity Generation Policy Statement have been largely positive.

Ian Marchant, Chief Executive of SSE commented:

“SSE welcomes the Scottish Government’s electricity generation policy statement. With energy supply now a global issue, it is vital that the policy objectives adopted at Scottish, UK and EU level are consistent. With its focus on energy security, affordability and de-carbonisation, this policy statement underlines the extent to which policy objectives are consistent, and it is very encouraging that this should be the case.”

Keith Anderson, ScottishPower’s Chief Corporate Officer and CEO of ScottishPower Renewables remarked:

“ScottishPower supports the commitment to increase low carbon electricity generation in Scotland and we welcome the clarity outlined in the Scottish Government’s policy statement. We are making significant investments in large scale renewable energy projects including new wind, wave and tidal power. This investment is critical in order to help Scotland achieve its renewable energy targets and will be a catalyst for economic growth and job creation.”

Alison Kay, Commercial Director for National Grid observed:

“Scotland already has the highest proportion of clean power generation across Great Britain, which plays a vital role in keeping the lights on and meeting demand. The future energy mix is uncertain and this statement sets out a clear vision for the future of energy in Scotland. It will further enable National Grid and other industry participants to effectively plan the networks of the future.”

The 2020 target is described in the Policy Statement as “both a statement of intent and a rallying call”. It has been demonstrated to be both feasible and achievable, with wind energy playing a massive part. It is hoped that the outlining of a long term plan to help achieve the 100% aim will provide investors with confidence.

 

Electricity Market Reform White Paper – Reactions

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Chris Huhne unveiled a new white paper, titled Electricity Market Reform (EMR), this week. The paper outlined the Westminster Parliaments plans for the much delayed and even more necessary reforms and infrastructure investments in the UK Energy Grid. It outlined the technologies earmarked as being cost-effective and high in potential both now and post 2020. These technologies are onshore wind, offshore wind, marine energy, biomass electricity, biomass heat and ground and air source heat pumps. As well as this there was also a big role given to nuclear power with some declaring some of the reforms as nothing more than hidden subsidies for the industry. The white paper is also notable for its shift in rhetoric. Previously the Department of Energy and Climate Change had spoken of achieving Government targets for carbon emission reduction but with energy bills steadily rising and public disquiet on the issue increasing the talk had shifted to “keeping the lights on”.

Huhne at the paper’s unveiling said: “The idea that somehow we’ve been massively investing in renewables is absolute nonsense. We are catching up from a very low base. We’ve had 25 years of dithering on energy investment. We’ve got to stop dithering, because decision time is coming. You can have investment or you can have blackouts.”

The EMR paper predicted at least a four-fold increase in renewable energy consumption by 2020. Huhne spoke of why this was vital: “Growth on that kind of scale will be challenging, but will be necessary if we are to make the UK more energy secure, help protect consumers from fossil fuel price fluctuations, drive investment in new jobs and businesses, and keep us on track to meet our carbon reduction objectives for the coming decades.

“It will require industry to carry on making the case for renewables and Government and the Developed Administrations to break through the barriers that are stopping new schemes being built.”

Energy Minister Charles Hendry told journalists that the government expected the technologies outlined in the EMR paper to achieve 90% of their target with other technologies, such as solar, having a “marginal role”.

Reaction to the paper was as could be expected, from the large number of different interests involved, mixed.  Scottish Renewables chief executive Niall Stuart issued the following statement: “The statement confirms that renewables are a major part of our future energy mix and the sector will be a significant driver of investment and employment over the coming decades as we replace ageing and polluting power stations with cleaner alternatives.

“Nobody should underestimate the importance of these reforms, which will make or break progress towards the UK’s and Scotland’s renewable energy and climate change targets.

“There is still a huge amount of detail to be developed, but this broad package of measures should allow us to meet the twin aims of increasing investment in renewables and minimising energy costs for consumers.

“Despite recent media reports, these reforms will actually mean reduced financial support for renewable electricity in exchange for long term certainty over revenues, with generators potentially having to pay back income if market prices reach a certain level.

“As the Secretary of State highlighted, the growth of renewables will not just clean upo our energy supply, it will also protect consumers form price rises due to the massive and growing volatility in international gas markets, meaning lower bills for consumers over the longer term.

“We will be working with DECC to ensure that the reforms are implemented in a way that supports Scotland’s ambitious 100 per cent renewable electricity target, and encourages investment in our key sectors such as our world-leading wave and tidal industry as it seeks to develop the first commercial wave and tidal farms between now and 2020.

“Scotland can lead the the UK’s efforts to cut emissions from the power sector and increase renewables, but only with the right support from Government. Massive growth in offshore wind will bring particular opportunities for Scotland’s existing offshore engineering sector and emerging offshore wind supply chain.

“But it is not just about investment in generation – ministers must also ensure that we get the necessary investment in new grid connections, onshore and offshore, to ensure that we can get power from where it is generated to where it will be going.”

5 of the ‘Big 6′ Energy Companies that dominate the UK’s Energy Market were also quick to release statements.

British Gas parent firm Centrica Energy managing director Mark Hanafin had this to say: “There remains much detail to resolve so that investors can have confidence that the tax and regulatory environment makes the UK energy sector a good place to invest.

“These measures come at a cost and it is vital that all of us – Government, regulators and the industry – are open and transparent with the public about the impact of these changes.”

David Cockshott, Director of Industrial and Commercial Markets for Npower commented: “We found many major energy users in the UK are concerned about the legislation outlined in the EMR and the impact it will have on their operations in the UK.

“While the EMR white paper provides some clarity on the future of the UK energy market, it may not provide the reassurance intensive energy users are seeking.

“Our experience with talking to industry about the EMR suggests that they will be eagerly awaiting further detail on each of the EMR proposals so they can start to make key low carbon investment decisions.”

EDF Energy chief executive Vincent de Rivaz: “It encourages investment in generation which is both low carbon and not dependent on fossil fuel prices.

“Trust is the essence of a healthy market, therefore it is important to continue to have a dialogue about energy costs.

“Consumer bodies, the regulator, industry and Government need to work together to build understanding. Renewing Britain’s ageing energy infrastructure will have a cost. Electricity Market Reform means that cost will be kept to a minimum.”

Ian Merchant, Scottish and Southern Energy chief executive stated: ” Any changes to the electricity market arrangements have to be carefully thought through, in a way which avoids unintended consequences and is supportive of the investment that is needed now and in the next few years.

“It is on this basis that we will ultimately judge the white paper as a whole and to ensure this is achieved we will continue to work with the UK Government and other bodies.”

E. ON chief executive Dr Paul Golby: “We cannot be complacent, it’s important this is driven froward to ensure a cleaner energy future for everyone.

“And, while the onus on the energy companies is to produce, transport and supply energy as efficiently as possible, we must also remember that this is not just about companies like E. ON and the Government, this is also about helping our customers who have a vital role to play in all of this.

“By becoming more energy fit – by insulating their homes, moderating their energy usage and by generating their own power – our customers can do their bit to reduce both their bills and also their carbon emissions, dual aims that we can all get behind.”

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, long an advocate of renewable energy issued the following statement: “Electricity Market Reform can help realise Scotland’s huge potential for clean energy generation and ensure security of supply across these islands.

“The UK White Paper makes clear that household electricity bills will rise over the coming decades and that increases are likely to be 25% higher if the market is not reformed. Investment in low carbon energy generation that harnesses our own natural resources will reduce both our reliance on fossil fuels and exposure to volatile global prices.

“Scotland is leading the development of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. EMR provides an opportunity to accelerate that, to help tackle climate change, to deliver greater energy security and to help limit rises that consumers are expected to face in the coming decades. The multi-billion pound investments required will create tens of thousands of jobs, leading to the re-industrialisation  of Scotland as we drive forwards the renewables revolution and development of CCS.

“While we support the principles underpinning EMR we have concerns about some of the detailed proposals. For example the move from the Renewable Obligation certificate regime to a Contract for Difference (CfD) mechanism must not create an investment hiatus, given the considerable progress already made and our ambitious plans up to 2020.

“We are also fundamentally opposed to the support for new nuclear plants because every pound spent subsidising this expensive and unpredictable technology of the last century is one  pound less available for investment in future growth of renewable generation. The EMR side steps the fact that the future costs of nuclear remain unquantifiable. An energy policy that relies on nuclear is an energy policy with a black hole at its heart.

“While newer renewable sources such as offshore wind have relatively high capital costs to begin with, theses will continue to reduce and be fuelled by nature indefinitely with no dirty clean up costs. Given the windfall that nuclear generators are likely to receive under the Carbon Floor Price mechanism, there should be no additional  subsidy for nuclear through the proposed CfD.

“The White Paper also pays insufficient attention to initiatives to protect consumers’ interests and I’ve stressed to (UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change) Chris Huhne that this is an area that must be strengthened. EMR must support consumers by making the network smarter and more responsive, through better demand side response, storage and interconnection. A more flexible and adaptive grid can provide both energy suppliers and households with better information on energy use and cost, alongside support for energy efficiency.

“Recent investments in Scotland’s offshore renewables sector from leading companies including Mitsubishi, Gamesa, Doosan, ABB and Alstom, are testament to our great natural and human resources and supportive environment for renewable energy investment and job creation. At the same time, Longannet remains the lead candidate for the UK’s first CCS demonstration project and Scotland also has an excellent base in science and engineering to ensure that we exploit the immense potential of CCS.

“We will continue working with DECC to ensure that a coherent, effective and seamless package of reforms are delivered which will fully reflect the respective powers of the Scottish and UK Parliament. In doing so, we remain committed to maintaining Scotland’s position as ‘destination of choice’ for investment in the development, deployment and generation of clean energy.

“Scotland is estimated to have as much of a quarter of Europe’s wind and tidal power resource and around one tenth of it’s potential wave energy capacity, as well as a wealth of expertise in offshore engineering, which can position us as a massive exporter of clean energy. The UK Renewables Roadmap includes Scotland’s target for renewables to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of annual electricity demand by 2020…

“The Roadmap recognises the huge contribution that Scotland can make to the achievement of UK and European green energy targets and this must be reflected in the final reforms to the electricity market which follow the consultation on today’s White Paper. At the same time, in order to fully harness Scotland’s massive renewables resource, fundamental change to the transmission charging regime is also required to end the discrimination against generation in those areas of Scotland with the greatest resource and to deliver the low carbon objectives of both the Scottish and UK Governments.”

Perhaps it is best to let Chris Huhne have the last word: “None of these challenges can be met for free. We will have to pay for secure, reliable, clean electricity generation including nuclear, renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage. Increases in wholesale costs and the carbon price are likely to lead to higher bills in the future, even without factoring in the huge investment needed in new infrastructure.

“So it is vital we put in place market arrangements that deliver the investment as cost-effectively as possible. The current electricity market is simply not up to the job.”

European Drought – Another Nuclear Disaster?

A drought in Europe this summer could expose the Nuclear Industry to yet more bad publicity following the disaster at Fukushima. The driest spring for a century has hit France particularly hard, leaving French agriculture facing a reduction of 11.5% from their average wheat harvest and could lead to blackouts across mainland Europe.

With water urgently needed by French farmers and river levels rapidly dropping the French nuclear power industry is preparing for a potential worst case scenario. France produces 75% of its electricity from nuclear power and traditionally exports some of this power across Europe. However if river levels drop further then many nuclear plants in France will no longer be able to cool their reactors, forcing them to reduce power output or even to shut down completely. Thomas Hondre, head of nuclear reactors at ASN (the French nuclear watchdog), commented that “we are in a drought situation that could prolong – and in case of a severe drought, if water levels go below set limits, power output has to be cut or completely stopped.” Indeed such situations have already come to pass; in the heat waves of 2003 and 2006.

The problem is further exacerbated by the dramatic change that German energy policy has undergone in recent months. 7 of the country’s nuclear power plants have been shut down this year and are not expected to go back online. Indeed, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that by 2022 Germany will have shut down all of its nuclear reactors. This shortfall was expected to be bridged in the short term by importation of French nuclear power.

The French energy grid is not just under pressure from possible nuclear shutdown and increased export demands. French hydro-electric plants are also rapidly coming under pressure from reduced water availability. It has been estimated that 2.1 terawatt-hours of hydro-electric power have been lost over the past three months due to increasingly low water levels. 20% of French power capacity is generated through hydro-electricity. French coal power is also under strain as further reductions in river levels could mean that it would become increasingly difficult to transport coal to the plants.

With the threat of blackouts across Europe beginning to become a possibility the Nuclear power industry claims of reliable, dependable, safe power look set to take a further battering. What are your thoughts?