This week one of the key figures within the renewables industry predicted that a massive and rapid expansion in the use of renewable energy generation will occur over the next two decades.
Markus Tacke, Chief Executive of the German Multinational Siemens’ wind power division predicted that the global wind power market will more than quadruple in the years through to 2030, with the majority of this growth occuring in the Asian Pacific. Speaking at a renewable energy conference in Berlin Tacke commented that “the market will shift away from Europe significantly.”
Europe is currently the world’s largest market for wind power. So it is inevitable that other regions have more room for industry growth. The Asian Pacific was highlighted due to many nations in the region shifting their energy focus to renewables with wind power generation given particular attention due to the technology’s proven track record and falling costs. Wind power is expected to play a particularly strong role incountries such as Japan, which is moving away from nuclear power to renewables following the Fukishima Disaster, and China, which has large amounts of steppe land suitable for onshore wind farms and a desire to reduce the country’s reliance upon imported coal. Indeed a recent report produced by GlobalData has demonstrated that China doubled it’s installed wind capacity year on year from 2006 to 2011.
As of 2012 there were 273 Gigawatts (GW) of installed renewable capacity across the globe. By 2030 this capacity is expected to increase dramatically to 1,107 GW. As stated previously Europe is the world’s biggest market for renewable energy generation. Along with the Middle East the region accounts for 40% of the world’s renewables market. Currently the Asian Pacific accounts for 34% of the world’s market share. By 2030 this market share is expected to grow to 47%. Obviously this demonstrates huge growth in Asian renewables but it should be noted that the European market will also continue to expand. Despite such aggressive Asian growth European and Middle Eastern market share is only expected to drop to 34%. This indicates the huge amount of renewable capacity which will be constructed in Europe over the next twenty years.
This can be seen in other news announced at the same conference at which Markus Tacke was making his comments. The Norwegian Ministry for Oil and Energy has granted 8 licences for offshore wind farms which when completed are expected to have a combined capacity of 1.3 GW. This is just one of the steps being taken by the Norwegian Government in order to meet their target of having 67.5% of their power being generated from renewable sources by 2020.
Another report on China, this time by Bloomberg New Energy, fully lays bare the monumental amount of growth expected to occur in the Chinese renewables market. They predict that over half of all new generation capacity in China through to 2030 will come from renewable sources. To place this in context, over this timeframe, Chinese power capacity (regardless of how said power is generated) will more than double.
The Bloomberg report covers several different scenarios. One in which progress in clean energy technology is slower than expected, two in which the barriers to rapid takeup of renewable energy technology are removed and what is billed as the most likely scenario; the “New Normal”.
In the “New Normal” scenario over 1,500 GW of generation capacity will be constructed in China by 2030. Such development will be driven by investment of over $3.9 trillion. This level of investment will result in the creation of 88 GW of new capacity annually. To place this in prespective 88 GW represents the entire generation capacity of the United Kingdom!
China’s reliance upon coal power has often been cited as one of the major stumbling blocks towards the world achieving internationally agreed greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. In Bloomberg’s “New Normal” coal’s share of China’s energy mix is expected to drop from it’s current level of 67% to 44% in 2030. This demonstrates the trans-formative potential of renewable energy.
Michael Liebreich chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance echoed Markus Tracke in his assessment of Chinese energy generation:
“It is hard to underestimate the significance of China’s energy consumption growth and its evolving generation mix,” he said. “The impacts will reach far beyond China and have major implications for the rest of the world, ranging from coal and gas prices to the cost and market size for renewable energy technologies – not to mention the health of the planet’s environment.”
The predictions and comments made this week demonstrate the huge potential of both the wind generation industry and the wider renewable energy industry. Renewables surely represent one of the world’s biggest growth markets.